This is September, 2011, only 400+ days to go before Election Day 2012.
NOW is the time to start doing the serious prediction. However, I have no Tea Leaves, Tarot Cards or Crystal Ball, I only have past history and current trends to guide me. This should be easy! (sarcasm)
|Gov. Palin (R-AK) at the RGA 11/2008|
The last non-Ivy person to win the Presidency occurred in 1980, and the last won to win in 1984. (The Democrats elected their last non-Ivy person in 1964 and denied LBJ re-election for other Ivy candidates. A trend that has continued since then)
So, how does Palin win?
1) Palin already has a leadership PAC -- and she already learned something from Election 2008: Break through the culture, Raise the finances. She has built up a cultural standing, the next step is to open up the finance door.
2) In the past two Presidential Elections (1992, 1980) where the incumbent was thrown out, the winners announced in the Fall. She does not have to announce until she has the funding, she has the support in the local activists and the Blogosphere. (See C4P, The Other McCain and Riehl World View). If she announces, I would hope she chooses the Grand Canyon. Why? She represents the American frontier, so does the Grand Canyon.
3) When she enters, she takes away support from Perry (she is a Reformer within the Party, he switched to win elections), Romney (no local GOP trusts him -- everyone knows Governor Palin has our back) and Bachmann (Palin broke ground for Bachmann, who will rise within Minnesota; Also Palin has support from the grass roots Tea party groups). Anyone who has not figured this out is either Establishment Republican or a Democratic partisan.
4) She understands the role women play within the local activists (see Southern California Republican Women as an example). The reason no one has heard her campaign stuff yet is because she is having people work with these groups first. Romney does not have these people.
5) Face it, the Democrats and their media allies have "shot their wad," in attacking her. Governor Palin has been vetted more then Senator Obama was in 2008 (Thanks JournoList! and Ezra Klein!). Any attack that does not go after her policies has given her more voters. Don't believe me? I have seen more support for her after every misogynist attack on her. It's like me learning that President Nixon was not Absolute Evil, but a normal guy who was poorer then the Kennedy's.
6) And finally, as long as she is driving around America and getting to know the major early states (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina), she will do fine.
Two hints of advice from me:
A) Get involved with flipping Los Angeles; The structure is here, and we will remember who does not leave us behind (that is why Meg Whitman is despised and Reagan is remembered fondly -- he fought here). If you want to win 55 Electoral votes from California, win with this equation. And win Los Angeles.
B) Pick either Senator Marco Rubio or Governor Gary Johnson as your running mate.
My question: How does Palin win your state in the Primary and the General?