Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Gametime: New Hampshire

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We close off the day with a surprise. Entrenched incumbents, not upstarts, won the New Hampshire Primaries.

First, the results.

For the GOP, it proves that Senator McCain is President of New Hampshire (he won the state back in 2000); For the Dems, it shows a weariness of throwing Senator Clinton over the side.

To defeat the American Harold Saxon, Senator Obama has offered a vision of the future; Senator Clinton is still selling a bridge to the past. As someone who spent 5 times in a counting room after an election, the numbers that Senator Clinton won by do not add up, maybe a reporter can look into that.

In the Republican circles, it is still anybodies game. My candidate, Mayor Giuliani, can wait out Michigan and South Carolina; But the early winners need a second, but Romney has the most delegates. This can go all the way to this summer's convention.

Millions of dollars spent to win a state but not a bunch of states. Here are the questions for Michigan and South Carolina:

1) Who will eke out the next win among the Democrats, Senator Obama or Senator Clinton?

2) Will any Republican candidate solidify a lead before February 5, Super Tuesday?

Jason, you're up. What's your take?

7 comments:

  1. With the kind permissions of JSF and Jason I should like to posit several questions.

    1. What role did the youth of New Hampshire play if any in the outcome in New Hampshire?

    2. Could the victories by Senator Obama and former Governor Huckabee in Iowa when contrasted with the victories of Senators Clinton and McCain in New Hampshire forebode an struggle for the future definition or redefinition of the respective parties?

    3. To what extent has Vice President Cheney's decision not to seek the nomination in 2008 affected the nature of the caucuses, primaries, and indeed the general election?

    4. What affect if any will the statements made by Colin Powell concerning Senator Obama have if any on South Carolina?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have two other questions that were inadvertently omitted from my earlier comment.

    Several weeks ago I inquired as to what effect Senator Lieberman's endorsement would have on Senator McCain's campaign at that time it was generally believed that endorsement was irrelevant however, with Senator McCain's victory in New Hampshire it seems prudent to reconsider those questions.

    4. What role did the Independents in New Hampshire in bringing about McCain's victory?

    5. What effect if any did Senator Lieberman's endorsement have on the Independents of Mew Hampshire?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well, Aurora here, not Jason, but I think it's too early to discount the Hildebeeste unfortunately. Until rigor mortis sets in, the black widow could jump up and sink in the venom once again. I really hope I'm wrong.
    JSF, I really don't think your guy is going to get anywhere. I might be wrong but just about everyone I know sees him as a RINO and a RINO in drag at that. Once again, I could be wrong. Just a tentative prediction.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Chess, I fell asleep early last night and I'm just rushing around to leave my house right now, so until JSF or I can get you an intelligent answer, you're stuck with Aurora's insane in the membrane ranting. I don't know how she finds time to post comments when she's got a large vat of potions to brew and pins to stick into the dolls she has of all the democrats and half the republicans who aren't rabid enough for her.

    ReplyDelete
  5. OK, on to Chess' questions...

    1. What role did the youth of New Hampshire play if any in the outcome in New Hampshire?

    Hard to know until we see the voting turnout stats.

    2. Could the victories by Senator Obama and former Governor Huckabee in Iowa when contrasted with the victories of Senators Clinton and McCain in New Hampshire forebode an struggle for the future definition or redefinition of the respective parties?

    I think the results of the primaries always effect the redefinition of the party. Parties get a fresh perspective of what fires up their base and between the primaries and the general they calculate how to capture all of those votes.

    3. To what extent has Vice President Cheney's decision not to seek the nomination in 2008 affected the nature of the caucuses, primaries, and indeed the general election?

    Not much. As reviled as that man is, these are politicians and they are only willing to savage each other to a certain extent. The real loser in his decision not to run is the comedy industry.

    4. What role did the Independents in New Hampshire in bringing about McCain's victory?

    Probably about the same role they had in 2000, though I can't for the life of me figure out why. Outside of campaign finance reform, there's nothing the slightest bit independent about John McCain. He's a party-line kind of guy.

    4. What affect if any will the statements made by Colin Powell concerning Senator Obama have if any on South Carolina?

    None. He's not as influential as he once was, and lying to the UN for Bush didn't help his credibility much.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Aurora,

    I give my reasons for Mayor Guliani in my endorsements. I'm not ruling out any Republican until after Feb. 5.

    Chess,

    1. By this weekend, in the NH Papers, those #'s should come out.

    2. It's too early to decide that. I'm holding my decsion on what it all means until after Feb. 5 when 20 ststes go at once.

    3. Vice President Cheney not going for the nomination means it is a jump ball. There are no incumbents in either party.

    4. The independents still backed McCain. Again, try to read the NH papers by this weekend.

    5.Senator Lieberman represents the Independents in New England; When he spoke, they listened.

    6. Colin Powell does not have as much clout in the GOP as he did in the 90's. He is too much an "Inside the Beltway" guy to be listened to outside in the states. Just because the New York Times loves you, does not mean that the GOP will also support you.

    Hope that helps.

    ReplyDelete
  7. The McCain victory in New Hampshire reminds me of the 1937 rematch between Alekhine and Euwe.


    Huckabee reminds me of Euwe in the sense that both he and Huckabee are the upstarts who defeated McCain and Alekhine the aged veterans in their first match.

    McCain who had been largely written off after Iowa anihilated Huckabee in New Hampshire just like Alekhine did to Euwe in their 1937 rematch.

    In 1937 Alekhine though he was the former world champion it was believed he was well past his prime and was no longer competitive, while Euwe was at his best. However, the match resulted in the anihilation of Euwe by Alekhine. The final score was 9.5-15.5

    The resurgence of McCain reminds of Alekhine in the aftermath of the match because, MCcain like Alekhine had been largely written
    off and yet he decisively destroyed his opponents.

    ReplyDelete

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