Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Addendum to Gameday:New Hampshire

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Let's catch up: Iowa caucus and New Hampshire Primary.

Rasmussun Polls have been the best this election season. Here, it is written that Senator Obama has the best chance of winning. The American Research Group Polls before the Primary had Senator Obama ahead of Senator by double digits. The Marist Poll had the same things.

All the pollsters guessed Obama's percentage (37%); They guessed McCain's win and the Republicans list of candidates. So.........How did Hillary win?

Here are my theories:

A) She had enough people in the counting rooms to change the votes in the Southern cities.

B) She brought enough people from outside the New Hampshire to skewer the pollsters numbers.

C) She made a deal with Devil.

Does anyone doubt that CNN will investigate? Yes, that was sarcasm.


  1. JSF and Jason, as an uneducated layman whose understanding is limited to the concrete fields of history, law and the non-economic aspects of international studies.

    I openly admit a degree of naivete regarding the mathematical structures and strictures of polling and demographics as such I thank you for the answers to my questions as basuc and naive as they are

  2. JSF, did you happen to catch her little speech where she almost cried? It was the first time she has ever sounded like an actual person. It wouldn't have switched my vote (were I able to vote in a democratic primary being unaffiliated), but I could see how it might have made enough difference to enough voters who were on the fence about her.

    Chess, polling is pretty hit or miss. When you're extrapolating large trends from a small sampling of people, there's always the chance that you just haven't talked to the right people to represent the diversity of the larger group.

  3. Jason,

    Crocodiles cry too, but do you trust them? Her record (in and out elective office) is of manipulation and Anger. When I was in DC, there were stories of how she treated her staff and how cold she was.

    The people in New Hampshire are sophistacted of political tricks. After all, why did all the polls say otherwise? She only won within the margin of error.

  4. JSF, the smart money is on A) and C) in your list. But I think the deal with the devil went through a long time ago. How else would such a despicable character have made it thus far against the will of the American people? Extraordinary.

  5. JSF and Aurora, I'm no fan of hers by any stretch, but the levels of your anger and paranoia toward her are a bit on the silly side. It's only the first primary and you're already getting yourselves in this mode that if she does happen to win the general election it's not legitimate. People on my side have questioned the legitimacy of Bush because of very real questionable things that happened in Florida and your side calls us a bunch of kooks because of that. What would you say if we started questioning every one of his primary wins?

    JSF, please don't follow Aurora down that rabbit hole of total rabid wingnuttery.

  6. Jason,

    I'm not going to go back into history here, but since Nixon, to some folks on the Democratic side, no Republican President is legitamite. (That brought out the Hate Speech post further down.)

    I question Hillary because as a Republican I've been called a fascist, nazi, rascist, etc just for expressing Conservative views.

    I question Hillary because the Hate directed at President Bush throughout his eight years was unprecedented.

    I question Hillary because she has done more to destroy people on my side and there have been no Goldwater moments on the Democratic side to stop her or her allies.

    I question Hillary because Karma is truly a bitch.

  7. JSF, your logic, as usual, is nonexistent. If it's wrong when one side does it, it's wrong when the other side does it. Please for the love of Jeebus buy yourself a book on the basic concepts of logic and study the hell out of it.

  8. Jason,

    Read those words again. This isn't factual debate -- it is emotion.

    It is always playing nice when Democrats always de-legitmitize every Republican issue. It is the triumph of ad hominims against a Conservative because of their views.

    Yes, I am angry at Hillary. Yes, I am angry at the Democrats. Those Goldwater moments I talked about would've gone a long way to cooling my heels.

  9. JSF, every reason you have given for questioning Hillary have nothing to do with ANYTHING. Questioning her because of something some nameless generalization of democrats may have said along the way is illogical. Questioning her because she is a cold and calculated politician who refuses to take a stand on issues until she has figured out how to say it in a way that plays both sides of the fence but doesn't actually do anything is a logical reason to question her.


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