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Happy Easter! This is going to be one of two posts today (the other will be tonight).
First, one immutable law of politics is to follow Precedent unless there is no precedent. Each campaign has a model to follow:
1) Senator Obama is following the Clinton 1992 model.
2) Senator Clinton is following Christina Fernandez de Kirchner 2007 model.
3) Senator McCain is following the Nicholas Sarkozy 2007 model.
Now let's break it down:
1) Senator Obama is doing things within the Democratic Primary and caucuses that are new. No one tells him that "It's been done before," or he doesn't listen. Like Clinton 1992, he cited "Change," as part of his campaign. And by being "new" he won the most Delegates. If he wins the nomination, the Feminist and Clinton partisans sit out.
2) Senator Clinton has not released her Tax Returns, her husband's donors to the Clinton Library or been open about her campaign as to who released damaging tools against Obama. (You can blame the Right Wing all you want, but Senator McCain has not allowed the Right to go personal; Only the partisans off the Structure do not follow. And think logically, who gains from Race issues during a Primary campaign?). For Senator Clinton to win, she has to overturn the popular votes in a majority of States using the Super Delegates at the Denver Convention. If she wins the nomination, the African American and Youth vote sits out. That's less than the Feminist and Clinton partisans.
3) Tell any Republican or Conservative that McCain is a continuation of President Bush and you will be laughed in your face. Most Washington Reporters don't get that. Yes, he supports the war on Iraq, but throughout the aughts (the '00's), he has opposed, blocked or made life tougher for President Bush. If it weren't for Rush going off the reservation with "Operation Chaos" the Democrats still would not be battling. can he win? If the Democrats spend Primary money until August, he has a good chance.
Now let's do Game Theory:
Senator Clinton wins the nomination -- African Americans and Youth votes sit out. African American voters cheated out of one of their own, looks to do "Operation Chaos" within the GOP too. Clinton's negatives + Democrats feeling betrayed = President McCain
Senator Obama wins the nomination - Clinton partisans and Feminists sit out. If he wins it early, it becomes a fight; If it lasts to August, Senator McCain wins.
Senator McCain can raise money and travel to our International allies until the Democrats figure out what game their playing. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans are not playing a zero sum game.