When I went to American University in Washington, DC, I studied under Professor Allan Lichtman (yes, the same guy who ran in the MD Senate Primary in 2006); Now, I wasn't the greatest or smartest student, but he wrote a great book that I use to follow Presidential Elections. And before you begin, here is Professor Lichtman's own prediction in Early 2010. Now this is the book he (and tonight, I am as well) models elctions on:
Since I'm on a Lord of the Rings series read, each 13 key (+1 more) will be tied to one of the dwarfs of the Hobbit. The 14th Key is only for Conservatives, Republicans and Tea partiers, it is not Professor Lichtman's, it's my own.
Now onto the keys!
2) Will President Obama have a Primary opponent? There is talk now, so this works against Obama. Another negative key. (Kili)
3) Incumbent party holding the White House? That is the Democrats, and that is a key in their favor.(Oin)
4) Will there be a Third Party challenge? Yes, see Mayor Bloomberg, No Labels. Negative against Obama.(Gloin)
5) Is the short term economy doing fine? If unemployment stays on it's present course and of course, the recession ends before October 2012, then this is another key against President Obama.(Dwalin)
6) Economic growth larger then the Last Administration (Long term Economy)? No, President Obama was voted to get the Economy back on track, no matter what speeches are given, his economy is not growing as much as President George W. Bush's economy after 9/11 and the dot-bomb. Another negative key. (Balin)
7) Any major policy Change by the Incumbent Administration? Obamacare. But this counts as a positive key in the Election cycle because it counts as a "win," (Bifor)
8) Social Unrest? We tea patiers are the new hippies. Another key against President Obama.(Bofer)
9) Any Administration scandal? Journolist -- Ezra Klein and his band of Merry Journalists conspired with the Democratic Party to shift an election. Why isn't Ezra Klein in jail? Another negative key.(Bomber)
10) Foreign or Military failure? Any new "Islamic Republic," that appears in the Middle East and North Africa between 2008 and 2012 falls on President Obama's shoulders. Any "Islamic Republic," that attacks Israel is a Foreign policy failure. If Afghanistan remains a failed State, that becomes another Obama policy failure. Another negative key.(Dori)
11) Foreign or Military success? If any of the above does not occur, then this is a positive key. Until then, this key has not turned. (Thorin)
12) Incumbent Charisma? Yes, President Obama has charisma. Positive key.(Ori)
13) Challenger Charisma? This key is a No, unless One person wins the GOP nomination, then it works against President Obama.(Nori)
Let's go over the 13 keys before Bilbo Baggins meets Smaug:
10 Negative Keys and 3 Positive ones. He will lose in 2012.
And now, Bilbo (Voiced by Orson Bean) meets Smaug:
And the 14th Key, the lucky number, the Bilbo Baggins of Keys:
14) Did the Democratic Partisans attack Our Candidate for November BEFORE the Primary season?
The only person who has been attacked (under the modern "Dean Democrats,") is Former Governor Palin. If she was not so hated, the support in the provinces (and the Internet) would not be so strong.
If Governor Palin runs in 2012, she wins.
My question: Do you trust the keys?