For the past 85 weeks or the past year and a half, my situ is not conducive to Blogging.
However, there is a Foreshadowing of good news ahead (of which I cannot write until much later), but suffice to say, the Valley will be active again. I still follow news, blogs and databases, but I cannot write about them until the Chess Piece that moved 85 weeks ago moves into a better position on the Board.
The last Gubernatorial Election, we had a policy maker with no Political experience win the Primary (repeated on a national level in 2012 with the same team!) against a candidate who worked within the Party Structure who built connections. The Party Guy lost and we all lost in 2010.
Lesson 1) Money does not win elections; Ground support and loyalty does.
What made 2010 frustrating was that we were sending a green candidate against a Democrat with years and years and years of campaigning experience under his belt. We face Governor Brown again. He knows the Dirty Tricks to play, we should not to send a JV candidate against a Super Bowl Veteran (sorry, but Governor Brown is experienced). Lesson 2) Candidates for the Top of the Ticket need experiences in winning and losing campaigns. If you never run, one low blow will knock you out of the Election.
Also, 2010 was a Tidal year. For all the work that came from the Whitman campaign, she was the wrong messenger when we needed to FIGHT THE POWER! Heck, the GOP owns no major positions in CA, we are the rebels and the underdogs, if you are not singing that tune, you've given the game away.
Lesson 3) The biography of the Gubernatorial candidate will be the message as well as the Policy espoused. Don't fall into the trap of thinking your past and present has no bearing on Democratic Party attacks.
What galled me about Whitman's team was how they spent no time or Political Capitol dealing with the local activists. Poizner went into the lion's den of the San Fernando Valley Republican Club; into the headwinds at the SDGOP and also met with everyone at RPLAC. Whitman's people spent no time making nice with the local activists who could have helped. We know how that turned out.
Lesson 4) If you are unwilling to go into Thunderdome with your own activists and take the hard questions, you will lose the General Election. Win the Primary by winning the activists. Money does not win them, only how well you do under fire.
And finally, look at this map of California:
Election 2010 Whitman (Red) v. BROWN (Blue)
We own the outer counties, to win the Central Valley, talk about the Delta Smelt and to win in LA, look at the traffic on the 405 and 101. There is saying among Old School Republicans here in CA: Governor (and President) Reagan did not win State (or Country)wide, he won precinct by precinct. Lesson 5) Don't take any vote for granted, and use the local activists to help you get into areas most Republicans are not campaigning in (yet). Fight for every vote as if you were behind 20 votes. And be sure to have people making sure each vote is legal!
My question: What lessons would you give to the CA Gubernatorial candidates?
Playing the Political Game under the Prop 14 rules, the game is to get 50% + 1 to not have a runoff. However, to get a Republican in the runoff, we need someone who has played the Outside game.
She is a fighter, a doer and a thinker. We need candidates of her quality to represent Los Angeles in Sacramento (Dare I say, of all Political Stripes?). And she is a people person, that goes a long way in making deals to making sure Californians are not burdened with any more taxes.
Here is Ms. Shelley in a debate at the SFVRC:
And here is the Howard Jarvis commercial:
There are three reasons the GOP has a hard time winning in a winnable city like LA:
1) People cannot get over their losses and move on -- you lose a cycle, everyone should act like football players at the end of a game (post-primary and Post-election - exception: High Level staffer from POTUS and Governors' campaigns who cannot keep promises) and fights against the Left period. Anything else personal BS. I heard from multiple sources of a person doing this. No names here. But this person must move on or the Valley will be lost. There are more cycles, more election. She wins, everyone wins.
2) No one is reading and adapting to the Demographics. Social Conservatism will not win you in the City or the Valleys of Los Angeles. What works in LA will not work in the Inland Empire or Texas. Or to quote Speaker Tip O'Neil (again): All Politics is Local
3) No candidate in the Assembly race has built any coalitions. To win ANY Political race, coalitions are needed. Ms. Shelley has ably performed that goal.
On September 17th, if you live in the 45th AD in the West San Fernando Valley, Vote for Susan Shelley!
Fractured Legalese: JSF is a member of the 50th GOP AD. He is doing this Endorsement individually and solely without consulting or lobbying anyone else of the 50th AD GOP. This is JSF's Endorsement and no one else.
To make things better, change starts from your locality -- your town, your city, your block.
If you want to make something, start right where you stand and convince your friends and neighbors. If you cannot win your own block, apartment building or subculture, its hard to change the world without an Army behind you.
1970 Governor Reagan re-election
Or, as I like to say, "You cannot fight City Hall. Alone."
Here are some people who will change America out of the status quo of the Age of Contraction.
Ready? Go!
National
President/VP: Romney-Ryan 2012 -- President Obama could have been Mayor Bradley, instead, he became Mayor Dinkins. That's not the Right's fault. The fault, dear Left, is in thine own eyes and how you treat your Electoral opposites during Governing years. (There will be a Blog post about this post election).
Plus, Romney-Ryan are a mixture of Moderate Republicanism (Romney) and Fiscal Conservatism (Ryan). Social issues will take a backseat to the Economic and foreign policy issues in this Administration.
1980 President Reagan re-election
Statewide
Senator -- Elizabeth Emken -- why is it harder to unseat Feinstein rather then Boxer? Feinstein plays well with others on Capitol Hill, Boxer does not. Expect Boxer to be thrown out in the next CA Senatorial cycle.
Citywide
DA -- Alan Jackson. I've met him, and I was impressed with his seriousness and skills. He does not look for the cameras, he looks for the wins in court. The best type of politician.
Convention battle 1976 (Reagan v. Ford)
State Senate
Due to Prop 14 there is a limited amount of candidates who made the Top 2 in the State Senate and State Assembly. Here we go!
SD 25: Gilbert Gonzalez (San Gabriel Valley);
SD 27: Todd Zink (Western San Fernando and Northern PCH Cities);
SD 29: Bob Huff (San Gabriel Valley and the OC);
State Assembly
(**See Prop 14 notes above)
SA 36 Ron Smith (Antelope Valley);
SA 38 Scott Wilk (Santa Clarita);
SA 41 Donna Lowe (San Gabriel Valley);
SA 43 Greg Kirkorian (Burbank/Glendale);
SA 44 Jeff Gorell (Thousand Oaks);
SA 46 Jay Stern (Western San Fernando Valley)* I know him -- nice guy who is a teacher from LAUSD. he would do well for Education policy and Constituent service. VOTE FOR JAY STERN!
SA 48 Joe Gardner (Glendora and Covina);
SA 52 Kenny Coble (Pomona, Chino and Ontario);
SA 53 Jose Trinidad Aguilar (Downtown and Gateway Cities);
SA 54 Keith McCowen (Century City, Culver City and Crenshaw District)* Another friend I wholly endorse. If you live in his district, Vote and support Keith McCowen. He will bring "real change" to the Assembly!
CD 23 Kevin McCarthy
CD 25 "Buck" McKeon
CD 27 Jack Orswell
CD 28 Phil JennerJahn
CD 32 David Miller
CD 34 Stephen Smith
CD 38 Benjamin Campos
CD 39 Ed Royce
CD 47 Gary DeLong
Also......
CD 29 David Hernandez (I) * Also a good friend
CD 33 Bill Bloomfield (I) * my district
And finally, because I like backing underdogs:
CD 30 Brad Sherman (D) -- if Sherman wins, the democratic party machine that has done nothing for the San Fernando Valley will finally listen. if you like the status quo in the San Fernando valley, vote for the 74 year old Berman.
