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Welcome back to the Political News Network! First, here is Jason's take on the Pennsylvania Primary.
Here are the numbers. With Senator McCain having the GOP race locked up, it falls to the Democrats. In that side, Senator Clinton defeated Senator Obama by 10 points.
How did this happen? Here are the factors to consider:
1) "Operation Chaos" With Republican voters looking to intervene in the Democratic Primary, they are going to keep Senator Clinton in the race to keep the Democrats from locking up their nomination.
2) "Guilt by Association" attacks -- It is something every GOP candidate has had to deal with, now Karma sees fit to allow the Democrats to suffer from it. Senator Obama had to deal with his associations with: Reverend Wright and Bill Ayres. If Republicans do not get redemption from their pasts, neither should these two men. Word to the Democrats: If you don't like this attack on your candidate, don't start it.
3) "Bitter-gate" -- There is a great New Yorker cartoon with a Politician giving a speech to an angry crowd. One of his staffers says (behind the stage) "Oh my God! He's giving the White Collar Speech to the Blue Collar Crowd!" That is what happened in San Francisco in the lead up to the Pennsylvania campaign. No matter how "smart" or "rich" our Presidential candidates are, Americans want to believe that we are respected. What Senator Obama did in San Francisco was disrespect the White, Blue Collar voters.
4) Family Ties -- having family or growing up in a contested State always helps.
What happens next? Indiana.
To understand the consequences of the race, read this post on game Theory.
I am not surprised by the outcome in PA. I will be more shocked if Obama loses in North Carolina. Indiana is a toss up, although if Obama loses in Indiana it may cause the Illinios super delegates to defect to Clinton
ReplyDeleteAs an aside JSF I recommended your blog to one of mentors Dr. Terrence O'Rourke JD.
Additionally when you have a chance please send me copies of a selection of your essays and other writings so I can distrubte them to a couple of my old professors who are involved in politics here in Texas.