Monday, January 08, 2007

Three Pillars and a Long Game

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One of my favorite shows, Doctor Who, had an episode called "The Long Game" (guest starring Simon Pegg of Shawn of the Dead). That episode was part of a season regarding the manipulation of a future Earth [The Fourth Great and Bountiful Empire] for a larger plan by a darker enemy. Thanks to Thomas Barnett (writer of the Pentagon's New Map), Bush's plan of Iraq is part of a Long Game as well. But we face a Stateless enemy (or an NGO) who is willing to wait 800 years to get their old territory back. According to the German magazine, Der Spiegal, there are seven phases the terrorists are working on. Read this:

"The First Phase known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more preciselyfrom the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington tothe fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke theUS into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very successful," writes [journalist Fouad] Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard"everywhere."

"The Second Phase. "Opening Eyes" is, according to Hussein's definition,the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop intoa movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period.Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.

"The Third Phase. This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.

"The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyberterrorism.

"The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes thatby then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.

"The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.

"The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half billion Muslims," the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020,although the war shouldn't last longer than two years."

I discuss this in an earlier post. According to the 9/11 commission report, this has been going on since the end of World War II. Back to Barnett, he writes of the strategy of "The Big bang" Once upon the time (as described in the book, The Prize), American Middle East post-WWII policy depended on three pillars: Iran (under the Shah), Saudi Arabia, and Israel. After Carter lost Iran, America had two pillars and Iran was able to move its pieces around the Middle East

By going into Iraq, we are building a second Democracy in the region. During Gulf War I, the Democrat critics harped on America's lack of support of Democracy across the region. 12 years later, autocrats are out and democracy is being tried and the critics (the same critics as before) want to deal with autocrats. Barnett, the Democrat, sees the hope in building up Iraq. Why can't Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid? Can some Democrat tell me what their stance is in this Long Game of Pillars?

1 comment:

  1. To begin, please allow me to state that I have long been a supporter of the U.S. presence in Iraq. I felt that the first gulf war was left unfinished and was glad to see that we went in to "finish the job", as my wife(a veteran of the first gulf war) puts it.We both were very satisified that Saddam was ousted from power, and downright delirious when he was hung.
    Today, as I read a local rag published by what I can only term bleeding heart liberals, I noticed an article in which the author stated that it was a sign of hope that Bush is now backpedaling on what he stated as his reasons for going into Iraq. This harangue then went on to state that Bush was criminaly insane to still defend the idea that we need to maintain our presence in Iraq. I very much wish I could point out this blog to him, and others like it. Democracy in Iraq, and a push towards more democracy in the rest of the middle east is an extremely worthy goal, for the reasons stated here, and many more. The middle east is in severe need of learning how to tolerate differing views, ideas and religions. Just as anywhere else, it is the extremists who are causing problems. As of this point in time, they are a minority, but given a free hand, they will soon accomplish the goals you have cited here.
    I would like to thank you for writing this, and posting it in the forum on the blogger group, as I do believe it has inspired my next blog, exactly what I needed.


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